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da betsson： Some say you shouldn’t even look at the Premier League table until after ten games let alone take the rankings seriously, but with both clubs marooned in the bottom five Southampton and Newcastle’s Premier League clash this Saturday already has the aura of a relegation bout.
Newcastle are rock bottom of the division and without a win in nine games, but Saturday’s hosts haven’t fared much better either with six points in total – and currently stand level with the Magpies for goals scored and conceded in the top flight, six and 14 respectively.
So, will one side manage to break away from the fear of Championship football with a crucial victory at St. Mary’s? This week’s experts, Football FanCast’s very own Southampton fan James Beavis and TT’s Newcastle-loving editor-in-chief Jonnie Gorrie, share their thoughts and predictions ahead of the 3pm kickoff…
As already alluded to, neither side enter this fixture in particularly positive terms with the cloud of relegation looming over both teams. Whereas Newcastle appear to be paying the price for making only marginal additions to the team during the summer, a consequence of Mike Ashley’s much-maligned transfer policy, Southampton simply haven’t kicked up a gear from last season when they only narrowly avoided the drop and still seem to be treading water in the top flight.
What have been the key issues behind Southampton’s underwhelming start?
James: “Where do I start? To be honest, it’s been the same old problems that we saw last season in terms of not being good enough at the back, and over the course of the previous two campaigns in terms of struggling to actually put the ball in the back of the net.
“Six goals in nine Premier League games tells its own story, as does the fact that only Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have had more shots than our 124, but only Huddersfield Town have a worse conversion rate than ourselves.
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“The fact that we changed away from the three-at-the-back formation we used under Mark Hughes – which shows his tactical shortcomings – last season and during the summer in the match against Burnley on the opening day has hardly helped, nor has the fragile mentality we have when we take the lead. See the defeat to Leicester City and the draw with Brighton and Hove Albion at St Mary’s already this season.
“Talking of St Mary’s, we have won just two Premier League matches at our stadium in the previous 12 months, and Leicester and Chelsea have won there more times than us in the last 11 months. When you have that record you are never going to be far away from trouble, and if it doesn’t improve relegation is a certainty.”
And what does Rafa Benitez need to change to bring about a first win of the season?
Jonnie: “The saddest part about the whole miserable fiasco is the fact Newcastle have played reasonably well in some games. Aside from a few obvious terrible performances (Kenedy vs Cardiff, Jamaal Lascelles vs Man City, Ayoze Perez vs Brighton), it’s hard to pinpoint anything other than a distinct lack of quality in the team as being the reason for the decline. A bit like Huddersfield this season, I suppose, the luck can only go on for so long and last season probably wasn’t a fair reflection.
“However, perhaps bringing Ki Sung-Yueng in alongside Jonjo Shelvey would help. Mo Diame looked very good towards the end of last season, but Ki may allow Newcastle to control the game a bit more, potentially finding the killer pass that wasn’t there against Brighton. Southampton don’t tend to perform at home, so having two ball-playing central midfielders might work.”
What Newcastle weaknesses then, do you think Southampton are well-placed to take advantage of?
James: “I saw a statistic this week that said Newcastle are one of the worst teams in the Premier League this season for conceding set-piece goals, so that is certainly an area Mark Hughes and his men should look to take advantage of.
“Given they are without a win this season I think Southampton have to put the pressure on them from the very first whistle, as taking the lead could see their heads drop given they don’t have a great deal of confidence right now. Like Saints, Newcastle don’t score goals and if we can get two against them at the weekend, you would fancy that we will take all three points.”
Scoring goals has been a fundamental problem for the Magpies and the Saints this season with just twelve Premier League strikes between them. Southampton, at least, boast the most in-form goalscorer in this fixture in the form of Danny Ings, but Hughes continues to struggle to find an effective partner for the one-time England man on loan from Liverpool. Newcastle fans, meanwhile, have become so disillusioned with the club’s senior options that many are calling for U23s prodigy Elias Sorensen to be given his Premier League debut this weekend after netting past Aston Villa on Monday night.
Would you like to see Sorensen involved this weekend?
Jonnie: “We’re desperate for a saviour and, as romantic a notion as turning to a young academy player to save us this season is, perhaps it’s unwise to include Sorensen from the start. The teenanger could be an option from the bench, though I’d hate to see Sorensen burned out, as we did to Jak Alnwick a few years ago.”
And who should partner Ings up front?
James: “For me, only one man should be starting alongside Ings when we are playing at St Mary’s and that man is Manolo Gabbiadini.
“While we have already seen Ings play with Shane Long and Charlie Austin – including last weekend’s bore draw with Bournemouth – we still haven’t seen Gabbiadini given a run in the side with our best hope in front of goal.
“The Italian did start in the defeat to Chelsea earlier this month, but he was forced out wide and because of the opposition we were facing spent most of his time tracking back rather than being able to make an impact in the final third.
“A home match against a struggling Newcastle is surely the best time to blood both of them together again, and if Gabbiadini could get the goal he desperately needs for his confidence it could be the start of a budding relationship between the pair.”
Who do you see as the opposition’s biggest threat?
James: “For me it has to be Jonjo Shelvey. While Kenedy scored a brace against us back in March he isn’t exactly on form right now, while none of their strikers should really strike any fear into our defence given their records.
“Shelvey is a player who can dictate the game at St Mary’s though, and his ability to find a pass and shoot from outside the area could prove to be key in what could easily be a cautious, low-scoring affair that neither side wants to lose.”
[brid autoplay=”true” video=”312947″ player=”12034″ title=”Watch Fixture in Focus Southampton v Newcastle”]
Jonnie: “Pierre Emile-Hojbjerg. While Southampton’s strikers are almost as bad as ours, affording the Dane any time on the ball could open us up. Ings’ clever movement scares me, though the quality Hojbjerg has to act on that petrifies me more.”
Although directions from the dugout will no doubt be crucial on Saturday, tight-knit games of this variety can often boil down to one or two key individual battles – who gets one over on their opposite number enough to find the space to make a difference.
What will be the key battle this Saturday?
Jonnie: “Kenedy vs Cedric Soares. Soares flatters to deceive everyone outside of Southampton, I think. Due to his form under Ronald Koeman and Claude Puel, as well as his stalwart-like presence in the Portuguese national team, he’s often described as a solid right-back. Well, he may have been once upon a time, but I think Kenedy can get at him.”
And finally chaps, let’s hear your score predictions…
Jonnie: “A truly miserable 1-1.”
James: “All the signs probably point to another draw, but I’m backing us to come out of the blocks strongly to nick a hugely important 2-1 victory.”