The winner will be announced in Paris on Monday, October 28 – so which of the game's biggest stars are true contenders, and who are merely pretenders?
After a season headlined by him finally getting his hands on the World Cup, Lionel Messi took home his eighth Ballon d'Or after picking up the 2023 prize in Paris back in October. The footballing world has long since moved on, though, and debate has raged over the identity of the 2024 winner ever since the spring.
It was an intense race. Along with the usual domestic ups and downs, 2023-24 was a campaign that saw the majority of the globe's best players taking part in international tournaments, including the European Championship and Copa America.
So after a year that was defined by the battle between Messi's tournament success for Argentina and Erling Haaland's season-long superiority at Manchester City, how much of a bearing on the 2024 Ballon d'Or race will those international competitions have?
GOAL has been here every step of the way to track the contenders for the biggest individual prize the game has to offer. So who do we think will come out on top? With the nominees all confirmed, here's how we see things playing out at the ceremony in Paris on Monday, October 28…
Follow GOAL on WhatsApp! 🟢📱Getty Images15Dani Olmo (Barcelona)
Dani Olmo didn't even make it into Spain's starting line up at Euro 2024 until the semi-finals, but the playmaker still managed to play a pivotal role for La Roja as they triumphed in Germany. He tallied three goals and two assists over the course of the tournament, earning him a share of the Golden Boot, though perhaps his most pivotal moment came when he cleared Marc Guehi's header off the line in the closing stages of the final.
Olmo's superb tournament came off the back of an up-and-down season at RB Leipzig, which began with him scoring a hat-trick in the DFL-Supercup final but saw his game-time restricted by injuries. Regardless, his Euros heroics look earned him a big-money move to Barcelona, and he now has the chance to take his career to the next level over the coming years.
Advertisement(C)GettyImages14Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa)
Ballon d'Or voters are always keen to ensure a couple of goalkeepers make the final shortlist, and yet again Emiliano Martinez finds himself at the front of the shot-stopper queue after another memorable campaign. The Argentina No.1 played a pivotal role in Aston Villa's ascension into the Premier League's top four, and ensured he will play Champions League football for the first time in a decade.
Yet again, though, Martinez saved his best performances for the international arena. He conceded just once in six games as La Albiceleste won the Copa America – his third major trophy since making his international debut in 2021 – with his best performance coming in the quarter-final win over Ecuador, when he again showed off his penalty-saving ability by keeping out two spot-kicks in the shootout.
Getty Images13Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Haaland could barely have done more to win the 2023 Ballon d'Or and yet still came up just short, so could he get over the hump this time around? The answer is almost certain to be 'no', as despite his fine goal-scoring record, he endured some forgettable performances in 2024. He still ended the campaign with a league title after claiming the Premier League Golden Boot, but going out of the Champions League in the quarter-finals is likely to prove costly to his Golden Ball hopes.
That is because of the biggest obstacle that was already in Haaland's way, which is that he again missed the big summer tournament after Norway failed to qualify for Euro 2024. There was always a chance that if other contenders shone in Germany, then Haaland's potential heroics might be forgotten come voting time. As it is, they will merely push him further down the final rankings.
Getty12Nico Williams (Athletic Club)
Williams' performances in 2023-24 largely went unnoticed outside of Spain, but the Athletic Club winger proved to be one of the most dangerous attacking threats in La Liga, while he saved some of his best performances for the Copa del Rey, as he helped bring the trophy back to Bilbao for the first time in 40 years.
The wideman carried that form into Euro 2024, where he was one of the most electrifying players in Spain's mightily impressive side. His displays – which included an excellent opening goal in the final – did not earn him a big-money transfer in the end, but should push him close to the Ballon d'Or top 10 when all is said and done.